Should You Buy Medtronic Stock at $80?


Medtronic stock (NYSE: MDT) is down 5% in one week, while it’s down 7% in one month, while the S&P500 index is up 6% in one month. The recent decline can be attributed to Q2 FY2023 results, which the company reported yesterday, in which revenue bottomed out and earnings beat our estimates. After the recent decline, we find that MDT stock is undervalued as discussed below.

Medtronic revenues The $7.6 billion reflected a 3% year-over-year decline, slightly less than our estimate of $7.7 billion, primarily due to forex headwinds. The neuroscience segment experienced low-single-digit revenue growth, while all other segments were down year-over-year. The company’s earnings per share of $1.30 on an adjusted basis were 2% lower year over year, reflecting lower sales and a decrease of approximately 140 basis points in adjusted operating margin, partially offset by a modest decrease in total outstandings. shares.

Given the forex headwinds, the company lowered its full-year revenue growth forecast to between 3.5% and 4%, down from its previous expectation of 4% and 5%. It now expects earnings per share to be in the $5.25 to $5.30 range on an adjusted basis, compared to its previous target range of $5.53 and $5.65. We’ve updated our model to reflect the latest quarterly results. We expect revenue of $31.5 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $5.32. we guess Medtronic’s valuation That should be about $106 per share, which is a 36% increase from the current market price of $78. This represents a 20x P/E multiple based on expected earnings per share of $5.32 in fiscal 2023, which corresponds to the average over the past three years.

But what about in the short term?

With MDT stock down 7% in a month, will it continue its downtrend or is an upside rally imminent? According to historical achievements, there is High upside potential for MDT stocks in the next month. MDT shares have seen a move of -7% or more than 179 times in the last decade. 114 of these resulted in an increase in MDT shares in the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern represents 114 of 179, or 64% chance of growth in MDT stock next monthsee our analysis Medtronic stock is likely to rise For more information.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Rise Probability’ based on data from the last ten years

  • After falling -6.6% or more in five days, the stock rose 55% in the following five days.
  • After moving -2.8% or more for ten days, the stock rose 59% of the time in the following ten days
  • After falling -7.1% or more during the twenty-one day period, the stock rose 64% of the time in the following twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a high probability of an increase in MDT inventory over the next five, ten, and twenty-one days.

Medtronic returns (recent) peer comparison

  • Five-Day Return: JNJ High 2.6%; MDT lowest -6.6%
  • Ten-Day Return: ISRG Highest 9.2%; MDT lowest -2.8%
  • 21-day return: ISRG highest 19.4%; MDT lowest -7.1%

While MDT stock valuations appear to be undervalued, the COVID-19 crisis and recent market volatility have led to several price imbalances, which may present attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’d be surprised how much more positive the stock valuations are for Becton Dickinson vs. America.

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