(Kitko News) — Bitcoin’s price is down 65 percent so far amid a broader crypto winter that saw price collapses in several cryptocurrencies, as well as the failure of companies like FTX and Celsius. Bitcoin is currently trading around $16,500, but Daniel Bernardi, CTO of Digital Wealth, says the price will fall even lower.
“Up to $14,500, but I think it’s just for a few days,” he said. “There could be a return to growth next year.”
Bernardi’s company predicts the bitcoin price based on mathematical analysis that trains computer models based on past bitcoin price data.
“Bitcoin is extremely repetitive in cycle, based on halvings happening more or less every four years, and that cuts into rewards for miners,” he explained. “So basically we’re analyzing a lot of quantitative data related to this and we’re finding a big pattern in these movements.”
Bernardi spoke to David Lynn, anchor and producer for Kitko News, at the AIBC summit in Malta.
model and meaning
Bernardi added that his approach is not purely “technical” but also relies on “behavioural” components to predict future price movements.
“Bitcoin is struggling to find a fair price because it is all about sentiment for most people,” he said. “If they’re scared, they’ll sell. When they are engaged and thinking [Bitcoin] can grow, they start buying it.”
However, he added that there are clear patterns and drivers behind the price of bitcoin.
“We found out in our research, which we published currency telegraphBitcoin prices are driven by demand in the long run,” he said. “There is also growing user adoption [bearish] period … this means that bitcoin will continue to grow in the long run, even with its high volatility.”
next bitcoin halving
Every four years, bitcoin experiences a “halving,” cutting the block reward for miners in half. The next stop is planned for April 2024.
A few months after each halving, the price of bitcoin tends to rise, leading Bernardi to suggest that buying just before the halving would be a good strategy.
,[The halving] exacerbating the scarcity of new bitcoins in the market,” he said. “So if demand remains stable, that’s enough to drive the price up.”
Watch the video above to hear about Bernardi’s bitcoin price outlook for the next year.
Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV
Follow Kitco News on Twitter: @KitcoNewsNOW
disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not represent his/her views Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information provided; However, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is for informational purposes only. This is not a request to exchange any goods, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. And the author of this article is not liable for damages and/or damages caused by the use of this publication.